Argentina soy yields to fall 13%: Rosario

Argentinian production of soybean is to hit a five-year low of 52 million mt in the 2017/18 crop year, as yields are expected to fall to 13% to 2.9 tonnes per hectare, according to a weekly market note by the Rosario Board of Trade.

A lack of rainfall over the past two months has been the main reason for the yield write-down, which will see production fall 9% below the previous crop year and 8% on the previous five-year average.

The board expects the planting area to be 18.5 million hectares, although that figure is down on the 18.8 million hectares that were expected to be planted due to a lack of rain.

“The damaging effect of the moisture deficit is not limited to the smaller area planted, but the emergence of seedlings in these conditions have already forced us to discount potential yields in the new campaign. The possibility of repeating the record yields of 2017 is thus ruled out,” said Emilce Terre, the board’s head of research, in the report.

Exports are expected to reach 9 million mt, up 10% on the year.

With crushing demand estimated at 44 million mt and seed estimated at 4.8 million mt, stocks are expected to fall to 8.8 million mt from 12.5 million mt.

The figures on planted area contrasts with an estimate from Argentina’s Agriculture Ministry, which last week said the planted area for soybean would be 16.75 million hectares.

However, it chimes with estimates from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, which said plantings were expected at 18 million hectares.