Canadian grain and oilseed plantings to rise 4% to new record

The planted area for grains and oilseeds in Canada is expected to reach 28.1 million hectares in the 2018/19 crop year, a 4% rise on 2017/18, according to forecasts by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

Oilseeds planted area will rise 3.6% to 13.1 million hectares, coarse grains by 3.6% to 5.5 million hectares and wheat 4.2% to 9.5 million hectares.

Total production of grain and oilseeds will hit 87 million mt, up 3.6% in a year to hit a fresh record, depsite relatively low prices for the commodity.

"In general, world grain prices are expected to be pressured by abundant world grain supplies, but grain prices in Canada will continue to be supported by the low value of the Canadian dollar," the report said.

Soybean production will reach 8.1 million mt during the September 2018-August 2019 crop year, around 5%, or 400,000 mt, higher than the 2017/18 crop year, with the additional production headed for exports.

Meanwhile, corn production will climb 2.9% to 14.5 million mt, while wheat (excluding durum) will fall 2.8% to 24.3 million mt on expected lower yields.

Canola ouptut will rise 11% to 21.7 million mt.

TPP/Nafta

The expansion of these parts of the agricultural sector comes amid an initiative by farmers to double overall soybean production to 13 million mt by 2027 from 2016 levels of 6.5 million mt.

It also comes as Canada and the US seek to reframe the North American Free Trade Agreement and Canada pushes ahead with the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Earlier this week, US wheat lobby groups urged President Trump to sign bilateral deals with Asian buyers of wheat, fearing that if TPP – a free trade agreement that includes most Pacific wheat buying nations – is signed without the US it would hand a competitive advantage to Canada.

Compared to Canada’s total wheat production of 30 million mt, the US will produce 47 million mt this year.

In terms of soybeans, Canada will remain a small player throughout the next decade, likely producing around a tenth as much as Brazil and the US.