Canadian total wheat exports to hike in 2018/19: AAFC

Canadian wheat exports are expected to hit more than a three-year high of 21.9 million mt in the next marketing year, driven by an increase in durum acreage and a return to normal yields, the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) said in its March update released late Thursday.

Canadian durum acreage in the 2018/19 campaign, starting in August, is expected to increase 5% “due to lower carry-in stocks, relatively good prices and a shift out of lentils”, which in turn will lead to a 2% increase in durum exports to 4.7 million mt.

Total soft wheat exports in 2018/19 are to remain unchanged on the year at 17.2 million mt, despite a 4% increase in acreage as yields are expected to fall back.

“An 11% decrease for winter wheat [plantings] is more-than offset by a 5% increase for spring wheat [plantings],” with the latter higher “because of relatively good prices for hard red spring wheat and a shift out of winter wheat in Western Canada,” the AAFC said.

Meanwhile, Canadian barley exports in 2018/19 are expected to fall 13% to 2.35 million mt as the market returns to “normal trade patterns”.

Canadian barley exports are set to hit 2.7 million mt in the current season “due to stronger import demand related to lower world barley supplies”.

Soy exports boom, while corn exports are cut back

Soybean exports are expected to hit an all-time high of 6 million mt for the 2018/19 season, starting in September, as acreage hits a new record, while domestic consumption is only marginally up on the year.

The AAFC expects 2.98 million hectares to be harvested in 2018/19, a third more than the last two years.

Meanwhile, domestic corn demand is expected to rise due to “increases in ethanol production, industrial use and livestock feeding,” which will cause Canadian exports to drop 10% on the year.

This is despite Canadian corn production expected to hit an all-time high of 4.5 million mt, up 3% on the year.