Corn commentary: Apres moi le deluge, as CBOT declares force majeur

Corn ended the day down on the overnight settle as generally supportive data failed again to sustain any degree of upward momentum as the front month futures contract closed down half a cent at $3.6625/bu.

That effectively leaves corn still rangebound, slightly up across the shortened week but still unable to break out of its current range.

Amongst the end-of-week data was a further 115,000 mt of US private export sales with Egypt again the buyer, and signs that Brazil’s safrinha corn crop – the crop that typically powers Brazil’s export volumes – lagging behind previous year’s progress.

US corn sales again outstripped expectations, with analysts posting a 1 million to 1.5 million mt range with 2017/18 met sales coming in at 1.555 million mt with South Korea and Japan featuring prominently, along with Egypt.

Vietnam also appeared in the optional origin sales, adding a further 65,000 mt to take its buying under this category to 186,000 mt, adding fuel to a rapidly burgeoning outlet for US corn.

The country had failed to appear in any weekly corn export sales data for the entirety of 2017, but since changes were made to fumigation requirements, US corn may be more competitive for the country’s business that has been dominated by Argentina over the past year.

Ukraine government data also underlined exports to the world have slowed in recent months, although the rampant pace of 2016/17 exports meant that the 2017 calendar year saw exports rise 2 million mt on 2016 levels.

December’s data highlighted a slower pace to China’s export demand from the country, with the Urkaine-China route taking around 188,000 mt, versus the 500,000 mt seen in November.

On the flip side, Asia’s corn buyers showed signs of balking at recent stronger prices as NOFI’s Thursday tender went unfilled, although KPA picked up two cargoes with Bunge and Pan Ocean said to be the sellers.

Finally, after the ice comes the flood as swollen US rivers caused CME to declare a force majeur on corn deliveries with water levels too high for vessels to load, a Reuters report said.

Following hard on the heels of bad weather slowing trains to the PNW, the flooding may prove a stumbling block in the weeks ahead slowing grains and oilseeds moving to New Orleans and the US Gulf.