IGC says grain stocks to shrink for first time in five years

The International Grain Council on Thursday said it expects coarse grain stocks to fall for the first time in five years as demand soars 1.5% amid a 0.7% fall in supply during the 2018/19 marketing year.

Total grain production will fall to 2.87 billion mt from 2.94 billion mt, with consumption to hit 2.134 billion mt, up from 2.104 billion mt.

The figures mean that carryover stocks will fall 8% on the year to 560 million mt, equivalent to three months of demand.

The rise in consumption is down to a 26 million mt increase from 1.068 billion mt to 1.094 billion mt for maize amid good feed demand.

The fall in production is largely down to a reduction in wheat supply of almost 2% to 741 million mt from 757 million mt.

In terms of soybeans, production is expected to rise to 354 million mt, up 7 million mt from the 2017/18 year, largely down to an expected expansion in the planted area in 2018/19, as well as a poor Argentinian crop this year.

Consumption in soybeans is expected to rise modestly to 491 million mt in 2018/19, up from 486 million mt.