Mexico corn production estimate climbs, imports cut: USDA

29 Jan 2018 | Tim Worledge

The USDA has revised upwards its estimate for Mexico’s corn production in the 2017/18 marketing year, bringing it into line with Mexican government estimates, according to an attaché update report from the USDA.

The production estimates rise from 26.2 million mt, as set out in the January WASDE report, to 26.8 million mt, although year-on-year volumes remain lower.

The increase in production will likely offset Mexico’s need to import, with the USDA also reducing the import volume to reflect both the change and “greater economic uncertainty,” the attaché report notes.

Mexico, the US and Canada are currently engaged in renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, a US-driven initiative aimed at meeting a key pledge of President Donald Trump’s election campaign.

However, the agreement is vital in underpinning US exports, particularly in agriculture with Mexico the biggest customer for US corn exports until recently.

US exports amounted to just over 50 million mt in 2016/17 marketing year, with some 24% exported to Mexico, followed closely by Japan at 23% according to the US Grains Council.

The WASDE report released in January currently anticipates Mexico importing 16.5 million mt, although that will change in light of the increase in production and uncertainty around NAFTA.