South Africa could see 3.7 mil mt corn exports in 2017/18: Grain SA

Grain SA has put flesh on the bones of South African government data, with scenarios showing South Africa could yet export 3.7 million mt of corn based on the first corn crop estimates published earlier this week.

The outlook from the country's grain industry body is more than double current USDA estimates for corn exports, and comes as the country is on track to produce 12.2 million mt of corn.

In the February WASDE report the USDA expected South Africa to produce 12.5 million mt of corn on top of beginning stocks of 3 million mt, with exports of 1.7 million mt.

However, government data released in the last week shows current stocks were just over 6 million mt at the end of January with domestic consumption accounting for around 800,000 mt of corn a month.

Alongside that, this week the crop estimates committee published its first expectations for the country’s current corn crop, with the export analysis based on the anticipated average yield of 5.35 mt/hectare corn.

South Africa’s corn crop is expected to be split equally between white corn and yellow corn, with both contributing around 6.1 million mt, although white corn has a lower yield of 4.85 mt/ha, and yellow corn at 5.85 mt/ha.

If yields should drop, then the exportable surplus declines rapidly, with average yields of around 3.85 mt/ha likely to see fewer than 500,000 mt available for export.

Conversely, yields of 5.85 mt/ha could see exports swell to 5 million mt, the scenarios show.

Production so far is looking "fairly good" the report notes, with exchange rates and international prices likely to play a role in determining domestic corn prices.

"There will be large exportable maize surpluses in the 2018/19 season and prices need to trade at export parity in order for exports to take place," the report says.