Ukraine’s 2019/20 grain output to rise 1% to 70.8m mt, corn lower

Ukraine’s 2019/20 total grains production is forecast to increase to 70.8 million mt despite an anticipated 2 million mt fall in corn output, as increased barley and wheat production offset the decline, Ukraine’s acting Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food has told a conference in Odesa, Friday.

“This season, for sure, will not be worse than the previous season. We are expecting a decrease in corn production, but increasing production for barley and wheat,” Olga Trofimtseva told delegates at the Grain Ukraine conference.

The ministry is expecting overall production of 70.8 million mt across corn, wheat and barley, although corn production is likely to decline from a record-breaking 35.6 million mt to 33.1 million mt.

Exports are also likely to decline by up to 2 million mt, to around 26.5 million mt.

Feed wheat production, however, is expected to increase from 24.6 millon mt to 26.8 million mt, with barley adding 900,000 mt of production to rise to 8.2 million mt, according to the forecast.

If realised, that should boost Ukraine’s total production by 700,000 mt from 70.1 million mt in this marketing year.

Total grain exports, however, are likely to flatline, with the ministry forecasting export volumes will increase by around 300,000 mt versus the 49.3 million mt exported in the current marketing year.

Trofimtseva also warned that bad weather could see total grains production decline to around 67.4 million mt.