What are analysts saying about the US corn crop?
The US has had a record slow start to planting both corn and soybeans this year, propelling futures over the past week as analysts fear that corn acreage could be cut.
The following is a list of quotes from some leading analysts.
Terry Roggensack of Hightower Report
“This entire acreage issue is complicated this year by the talk of another Trump payment for farmers hurt by the trade war with China. If a producer expects to get $1.50 extra for getting soybeans in, it could cause less prevent plant acres for corn and more switching from corn to soybeans.”
Ted Seifried of Zaner Ag Hedge
“I would… say that with corn trading 50 cents higher than it was 8 days ago, farmers will be more likely to continue to plant corn after the crop insurance dates, and with Trump's $15-20 billion in trade relief, farmers will plant soybeans for fear of missing out. That being said, here are my current ideas if the weather pattern continues: corn - 88.6 million acres and soybeans - 85.4 million acres.
Terry Reilly of Futures International
“There is a real possibility the US corn carryout for 2019-20 forecast by USDA could end up below US soybeans, by the time USDA updates their September 2019 crop update. We are using 89.742 million acres for the US corn area, down 3.050 million from March Intentions.”
Matt Gallik of CHS Hedging
“I am estimating we will lose 4.37 million acres of corn bringing total planted acres down to 88.4 million acres. I think it is too early to get an accurate soybean lost acre estimate. It is a very fluid situation with the price continuing to climb, but this could very well be a real problem.”
Dan Hueber of The Hueber Report
“The final corn planting date for crop insurance in Illinois is June 5th and in Southern Wisconsin, Southern Minnesota and others is May 31st. If they plant after that date, the insurance guarantee will be reduced 1% each day so with the current corn/bean ratio, we would need to move well beyond that date to see much switch from corn to soybeans. The actual prevented planting insurance coverage would pay 55% of the insurance guarantee which means it would be a desperation choice for most operations.”
Kelly Herrick of Advance Trading
“The bigger unknown is what type of yield drag will we have with June planted corn. If we have 25% of the crop planted in June, University data would suggest that's a 10-15% yield decline. So is that 500 million bushels that gets clipped off the top of an already shrunken acreage?”
Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man Capital
"Corn [will] lose 4 million mt but beans will be flat."