Brazil on course for 99m mt corn, soybean harvest at 97%: Agrural

8 May 2019 | Tim Worledge

Brazil’s soybean harvest is 97% complete with yields robust enough to prompt an upward revision of total production, while the country’s corn harvest is likely to pass through 99 million mt, according to the latest revision from Parana-based consultancy Agrural.

With the soybean harvest grinding to its end, Agrural pushed its bean outlook up by 700,000 mt to top 115.3 million mt although the hot, dry weather at the end of 2018 has taken its toll.

“Despite the upward adjustment, production is still below the initial potential of 121.4 million mt,” the agency noted in a release accompanying the update, as dry weather “hampered the filling of the grains in areas where early soybeans were sown.”

The agency also revisited its outlook for Brazil’s corn crop, as the “near-ideal climatic conditions throughout April” and early planting for the key second crop after the preceding soybean harvest wrapped up early have driven expectations higher.

The agency increased its outlook for the Centre South region’s second corn crop to 69.5 million mt – an increase of 5.7 million mt.

Taken together with the government agency Conab’s outlook for the North Northeast region, Brazil’s total safrinha crop could reach 73.5 million mt, a 6 million mt increase on last month’s estimate and “well above the 53.9 million mt in 2018… and the record 67.4 million mt made in 2017.”

With the first corn crop now 91% harvested as of May 2, production is likely to reach 25.7 million mt, down by 300,000 mt from last month’s forecast.

Nonetheless, together the two harvests catapult Brazil’s total production to 99.2 million mt – just shy of the 100 million mt that some market sources are expecting – and 1.4 million mt ahead of the 2016/17 harvest.