Brazil's soybean exports to hit 97m mt, output 156m mt: Abiove

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries Abiove has increased its soybean export estimates to 97 million mt, while also raising the country´s 2022/23 output projection, both at record levels, the association said Tuesday.

Last month’s estimate for Brazil´s shipments was 95.7 million mt.

The new estimate is 23.2% higher than the previous year´s 78.7 million mt.

Abiove also raised once again its projection for Brazil’s 2022/23 soybean output to a record 156 million mt, up 1 million mt from the previous estimate and 20% higher than the prior year.

The association previously estimated Brazil’s production at 155 million mt, while in 2021/22 Brazil harvested 129.9 million mt.

The soybean crushing was pegged at 53.2 million mt, up 200,000 mt from the previous report and also an all-time high.

The new estimate represents a 4.5% increase from 2022’s 50.9 million mt.

From January to April, Brazil's soybean crushing reached 16.6 million mt, up 3.5% from the 16.1 million mt in the first four months of 2022.

Abiove cut ending stocks to 7.6 million mt from the previous 8.1 million mt projection, while in 2022 ending stocks totaled 3.9 million mt.

Soymeal and oil

Soymeal production estimates rose to a record 40.7 million mt from the previous 40.6 million mt, up 3.8% from last year’s 39.2 million mt.

By the end of the year, soymeal export is expected to reach 21.9 million mt, an all-time high and above the previous 21.4 million mt projection.

The new figure is 7.8% higher than 2022’s 20.3 million mt.

Brazil’s 2023 soyoil export estimates rose to 2.3 million mt from the prior 2.1 million mt projection while the output forecast remained unchanged at 10.7 million mt.

In 2022, Brazil exported 2.6 million mt and produced 9.9 million mt of soyoil.

Domestic demand is projected at 8.8 million mt, below the 8.9 million mt previous estimate but 20.3% above last year’s 7.3 million mt.

Abiove slashed ending stocks to 158,000 mt from the previous 324,000 mt projection, while in 2022 they reached 508,000 mt.