CASH MARKET WRAP: Pork, beef and poultry woes weigh on feed
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed over the week with most of the world looking to falling futures prices in Paris and Chicago, although the Black Sea remained well supported by government intervention and stronger currencies.
Romania became the fourth country to ban wheat exports, only to reverse the decision less than a week later under pressure.
Things were quieter on the tender front, although Egypt notably issued two tenders as it booked 360,000 mt over the week for French and Russian wheat at an average $251.52/mt CFR for May-June loading.
Over the course of the week, May prices in Europe and the US and took their cues from exchange losses, with Germany down 2% to $225.75/mt FOB Hamburg/Rostock and France down 1% to $223.25/mt FOB Rouen.
HRW lost around 2% to $222.25/mt FOB Gulf and SW was down 1% to $232/mt FOB PNW.
The Black Sea was the exception, with prices rising over the week as sellers pointed to a fast depleting export surplus in Russia, and low stocks in Ukraine, while the ruble and hryvnia have both found some modest strength against the dollar.
Prices rose 2% over the week, with Russian 12.5% was at $232/mt FOB Novorossiysk and Ukrainian 11.5% up to $226/mt FOB HIPP.
Corn
Growing fears over the spread of Covid-19 through US meat processing capacity rippled through the supply chain to send fresh shockwaves through a corn complex already grappling with a meltdown in ethanol production.
On Chicago, the May contract started the week at $3.31/bu, but had plunged almost 4% to $3.19/bu over the course of the week as the market digested the potential for an implosion in demand from both feed and energy.
The fall stimulated buying activity from end-user destinations, and signs that Argentina's logistics have clicked back into gear meant basis in the Up River hub softened appreciably over the week.
With the US facing burgeoning stocks, the two origins are locked in a tussle for export share, with the APM-15 US Gulf FOB market starting the week $6/mt below the Up River market.
But, as Argentine supply recovered, the Up River market had pared the difference to just 25 cents by Thursday, the APM-15 assessed at $151.75/mt on Thursday, down almost $16/mt in a week and equating to 58 cents over the May contract.
Argentina's FOB Up River market was assessed a cent higher at 59 cents over May.
Soybean
Chinese demand for most of the week continued to focus on Brazilian supply for shipment beyond May owing to the origin’s price competitiveness, and ample demand coverage for May and much of June.
Agricensus front-month price assessments also moved forward in the middle of the week to reflect June shipment.
For May, China was estimated to have now already booked around 10 million mt for May shipment, near full capacity.
But an erosion of crush margins for shipments between July and September Thursday did refocus crushers' attention on May and June shipments, with a total of 15 cargoes for 2020 and 2021 heard traded during the week.
The Agricensus APM-6 CFR China price marker for June shipment was assessed at $360.75/mt, down from $375.25/mt last Thursday, owing to a fall in underlying futures prices and a 16 c/bu week-on-week fall in premiums to 136 c/bu over July futures.
Futures fell during the week amid poor US sales, Brazilian competitiveness and poor crush margins as a result of falling meal demand amid reports that the US feed sector was struggling in the face of a widespread chicken cull.
July soybean futures fell from a close of $8.71/bu last Thursday to $8.45/bu this Thursday.
At origin, several trades were heard on a FOB basis out of Santos for June and July shipment during the week but demand for beans from the US remained limited.
Prices for June shipment out of the port of Santos on a FOB basis were assessed at $338.75/mt on Thursday, down 10.75/mt on the week, with prices for loading out of the US Gulf assessed at $337.75/mt, down $8.75/mt.