Casde: China cuts 3m mt in its 2021/22 corn demand outlook

12 Jan 2022 | Cai Chen

China has reduced its forecasts for corn demand for both feed and industrial sectors for the current marketing year, the monthly update to China’s Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (Casde) showed Wednesday.

China’s corn consumption for 2021/22 is now expected to come in at 287.7 million mt, down 3 million mt from the 290.7 million mt estimated in the prior month.

In the feed sectors, the report cut 1 million mt from its previous corn demand estimate to reduce it to 186 million mt for the current marketing year, with fresh pressure on livestock producers a key factor in the decision.

“Hog prices remained weak, weighing on the profits of raising pigs and inhibiting farmers’ willingness to supplement their farms. In addition, the imports for sorghum, barley and other substitutes in feedstuff increased,” the report said.

However, the growth rate of corn feeding consumption is expected to be slow in 2021/22 the ministry said in the report.

For industrial demand, China’s Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs (MARA) reduced its estimates to 80 million mt, down 2 million mt from the 82 million mt in its prior forecasts.

“Impacted by the high prices of corn, profits of those deep processing enterprises declined and the inventory of finished products increased, weighing on demand from downstream companies. That in turn will constrain operation rates of processing enterprises in the coming period,” said the report.

With those increases, China’s corn ending stocks were accordingly raised by 3 million mt from the previous estimates to 4.83 million mt.

For other estimates, corn production and imports in the 2021/22 marketing year were unadjusted at 272.55 million mt and 20 million mt, respectively.

For soybean, estimates for 2021/22 output and import were unchanged at 16.4 million mt and 102 million mt.

China also maintained its soybean demand estimates for the current marketing year at 118.08 million mt, of which crushing demand was seen at 100.47 million mt and food consumption at 13.55 million mt.

Finally, MARA left its estimates for edible oil production and demand unchanged at 29.66 million mt and 36.34 million mt.

Total imports for vegetable oil were estimated to remain at 9.33 million mt, with palm oil at 4.5 million mt, rapeseed oil at 1.5 million mt, and soyoil at 1 million mt.