China’s 400kt mt jump in soyoil imports likely to benefit Argentina: analysts

12 Oct 2021 | Liliana Minton

China has upwardly revised its soyoil imports in 2021/22 by about 400,000 mt from earlier estimates - an increase in demand which is likely to benefit Argentina, sources told Agricensus on Tuesday.

China, in its latest Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (Casde) report published Tuesday, revised its import estimate upwards for soybean oil by 400,000 mt, or around 66% from the previous estimates made in October, to reach 1 million mt in 2021/22.

Analysts expect most of the additional soyoil tonnage required by China to be sourced from Argentina.

Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst at Futures International told Agricensus he was “not confident the US will see any of the China or India business for soybean oil… We have problems here sourcing [soybean oil] SBO for renewable fuel production."

“Argentina is likely to benefit especially” Reilly added.

According to an Argentine source meanwhile, the US is "unlikely to be able to supply soyoil China...and neither Brazil due to the high domestic demand from biodiesel."

On Tuesday, China also revised its imports for palm oil, up by 300,000 mt from the previous estimate, while imports of rapeseed oil were lowered by 400,000 mt due to high global rapeseed oil prices.