EU cuts wheat forecast again as it loses market share to Russia

The European Commission has again cut its production forecast for the EU’s 2017/18 milling wheat crop, trimming a further 1.3 million mt from last month’s estimate to take its production forecast to 142.7 million mt.

But milling wheat, which is down 0.9% month-on-month, is still 5.8% higher than in 2016/17 and 1.8% above the five-year average.

And total EU wheat production, which includes durum wheat, is now expected to reach 152.14 million mt, which is 2.4% above the five-year average.

The figure is just above the USDA’s latest number, which had put it at 151.6 million mt.

The EU, a net exporter of wheat, has struggled to remain competitive on the global stage this marketing year, losing out due to a stronger euro and higher export volumes from Russia.

The latest sales figures showed EU exporters have sold 13 million mt, 19% less than last year.

Other crops have a mixed picture, with corn production at 63.24 million mt – 3.8% higher year-on-year and 3.6% above the five-year average.

Barley production, however, is down 1.2% year-on-year and 2.2% below the five-year average.

This article was updated on March 5 2018. It incorrectly stated EU wheat production was forecast at 140.3 million mt for 2017, this was the five-year average. The correct number is 142.7 million mt.