Favourable rains propel Brazil’s soy crop to 117.9 mil mt: AgRural

Brazil’s agricultural analysis agency AgRural has increased its estimate of the country’s soybean crop by another 1.7 million mt to take the 2017/18 soybean crop to 117.9 million mt as rain saw productivity across key states revised upwards.

It is the third increase in little over a month which has added nearly 4 million mt to the company’s estimate and comes after the agency completed a monthly review of the crop following “very favourable rains throughout February”.

Key to the improvement is a record-breaking yield which is set to augment the larger acreage as productivity was increased to 56.6 bags/ha – equivalent to 3.4 mt/ha – up from 55.8 bags/ha at the beginning of February.

That is higher than the 56.1 bags seen in 2016/17 and is “thus a new record for the country,” the report notes.

The increase was due to productivity adjustments in several states, especially in the key agriculture states collectively known as Matopiba, where Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia are all set for record production levels.

While the rain in February has aided the growth of soybeans, the forecasts expect further heavy rains in March “are of concern” the report notes.

Midwest states are also set for record production, but southern states continue to see below expected yields and complications from the drier spell that has extended across the region, with Rio Grande do Sul and Parana both seeing production levels cut.

Corn production is also revised upwards, with AgRural increasing the safrinha area to 11.7 million ha, up 100,000 ha, with the rally of corn prices likely to dispel any lingering fears over the choices of farmers.

“Despite the delay in planting, the recent improvement in cereal prices encourages producers not to further reduce the area, which has already fallen by 3.6% compared to last year," the agency said via email.

That saw expectations for overall safrinha corn production rise to 64 million mt, an increase of 400,000 mt, augmented by a slight increase in the first corn crop’s production estimate to 25.9 million mt.

Overall, Brazil’s corn crop is estimated at 89.9 million mt, up 900,000 mt on the previous month’s estimate.