Soy commentary: Futures ease on the day, finish higher on week

Soybean futures for delivery next month were poised to end the day down 4 cents but up 4 cents on the week, amid a stronger dollar, weaker oil prices and a bearish WASDE report.

Beans trading on the Chicago Board of Trade were valued at $9.83/bu for March delivery at 1800 London time, down 4 cents on where they were at the same time on Thursday after trading in a range of $9.79-9.89/bu.

Rains are expected to wet most of the growing areas in Argentina this weekend, although not enough to alleviate concerns.

“Nobody believes the (WASDE) numbers anymore and we have been kicking around on yet more Argentinian weather. The cash is getting excited about China rejecting cargoes, but there is not much moving from the US and lots from Brazil,” said one source.

A second source said the market was still digesting slightly higher than expected ending stocks, which was the reason for the move south.

Brazil’s soybean harvest is now 10% complete, according to consultants AgRural, although it is slow in Parana, the second biggest producing state.

In the cash market, CIF barge bids were relatively stable, if not a little firmer for March delivery, with traders quoting 37-41 cents over March futures for barges delivered in March with April at around 28 cents over May futures.

Agricensus assessed cargoes out of the Gulf at a 43 cent premium for March loading over March futures and 38 cents over May for April futures, which equated to $377/mt FOB and $379.25/mt FOB, respectively.

In Brazil, the real weakened for the sixth consecutive day, which again helped farmer sales.

The paper Paranagua market was pegged at 60 cents over March futures for March and around 49 cents for April.

With cargo premiums out of Santos said to be around 6-7 cents, Agricensus assessed FOB cargoes at 67 cents over March futures for March loading and 56 cents over May futures for April loading.

That compared with cargo offers at around 74 cents over March futures for March loading and 60 cents over May futures for April loading.

In flat price terms, that equated to $385.75/mt for March and $385.50/mt for April FOB Santos.

Beans delivered into China were talked at $1.58/bu over March futures, which equated to $419.25/mt.