Soy dollar likely to meet expectations, domestic sales at 3.6m mt

From the beginning of Argentina's fourth soy dollar scheme on September 5 to September 25, producers traded 3.6 million mt of soybeans in the domestic market, data from the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) showed on Tuesday.

New trades amounted to 2.4 million mt, while price fixation for contracts made before the program amounted to 1.2 million mt.

The goal of 4.5 million mt of soybean trade is likely to be achieved, as it would require only 1.2 million mt to be traded by the end of this week, considering the 265,000 mt average daily trade since it started, analyst Javier Preciado Patiño said.

The amount is compatible with the $2.5 million dollar income targetted by the government, Patiño added.  

The program is valid until next Saturday, September 30, and unlike the previous version, it is unlikely it will be extended.

"It's logical that it won't be extended because the objective was to collect dollars before the elections and that objective has been achieved; besides, there isn't much soybean left," Patiño told Agricensus.

The country’s presidential elections will take place in October amid a shortage of dollar inflows and Economy Minister Sérgio Massa is running for office.

The fourth soy dollar scheme started on September 5 and stipulates that crushers can freely use 25% of their export proceeds in foreign exchange while the remaining 75% would be exchanged at the official rate of 350 pesos per dollar.

During the first soy dollar scheme implemented in September 2022, sales amounted to 13.2 million mt, while in the second soy dollar scheme in December 2022, they reached 5.3 million mt.

During the third soy or agri dollar scheme, which ran from April to June this year, sales totaled 8.4 million mt.

Exports

From September 5 to 25, soybean export license applications (DJVEs) amounted to 729,355 mt while soyoil exports reached 7,744 mt and soymeal 1,350 mt, also according to BCR.

That means 99.7% of the DJVE is for soybeans and only 0.3% for soymeal and oil, the exchange said.

With low crush margins, most exports within the program were of soybeans, while the program aimed to boost crushing as the industry is currently operating with a high rate of idle capacity.

Since the beginning of the calendar year, 42% of the crushed soybean in Argentina was imported.

Soybean imports reached 8.17 million mt from January to August, with 52% coming from Paraguay and 44% from Brazil, according to Patiño.