Ukrainian grain export line up builds, with 800k mt already booked

Analysis of shipping line up data suggests that activity in Ukraine's deep sea ports has now increased to levels that are comparable with the early days of the original grain deal, with approximately 800,000 mt already seen as loaded or expected to load in the coming days. 

Ukrainian authorities announced a humanitarian export corridor back on August 10, safeguarding shipments from and to the Black Sea ports of Pivdenniy, Odesa and Chornomorsk (POC) and, after a slow start, activity has picked up.

Since the first vessels to enter the ports arrived on September 17, the lineup has significantly increased, wth eight vessels now managing to leave the port carrying around 242,000 mt of grains and iron ore.

Another 14 vessels have already arrived or are expected to arrive into Ukrainian ports in the near future, with at least 560,000 mt of cargo expected to be moved out of the country.

However, trade sources expect the flow further increase as more confidence appears among market participants and more vessels enter the ports.

That compares with the first month after the grain deal was first brokered between Ukraine and Russia by authorities from the United Nations and Turkey, back on July 22, 2022.

Back then, the first vessels started to move out on August 1.

By the end of August, 1.55 million mt of agricultural commodities had been shipped, but the figure also included around 1 million mt of cargo that was loaded on vessels that had been stuck in ports since the Russian invasion began on February 24, 2022.

As such, the total volume that was delivered by the freshly booked vessels was closer to 500,000 mt - meaning the humanitarian corridor is already ahead of that early pace.

For now, it is not clear if the Ukrainian humanitarian corridor can maintain the same results, or even grow in the same way as the grain deal did when it was first signed - and there are some notable challenges, not least the presence of Russian naval forces in the Black Sea.

Alongside that, turning the initial 800,000 mt of expected exports into a more consistent flow will also prove to be a challenge - by the end of September 2022, the Black Sea grain initiative had reported 3.9 million mt of cargo had been shipped.

That comes as there remains a number of risks associated with loading from Ukrainian ports, and the trade is most likely to be able to trade only those cargoes that have been already loaded, which limits the activity.