Wasde: US, global wheat ending stocks slightly higher, world output cut

9 Nov 2023 | Mark Shenk

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) boosted its 2023/24 US and global ending stocks estimates while cutting world production projections due to reduced output forecasts for India, Argentina and other countries.

Ending stocks of the 2023/24 crop year will total 684 million bushels (18.62 million mt), according to the November update to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde), which is 14 million bu higher than it projected a month ago.

It is also higher than the 669 million bushels (18.21 million mt) projected by analysts surveyed before the report. 

US wheat output is expected to total 1.812 billion bushels (49.3 million mt) in 2023/24, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate and 9.8% higher than 1.65 billion bu projected for 2022/23.  

Domestic consumption is projected at 1.155 billion bu (31.5 million mt), down by 4 million bu from the October report but still higher than the 2022/23 forecast of 1.131 billion bu.

The 2023/24 export estimate was unchanged from last month at 700 million bu (19.1 million mt).

Global outlook

Global ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 258.69 million mt, up from 258.13 million mt projected last month.

Analysts surveyed before the report expected ending stocks to be pegged at 257 million mt.

The ending stocks forecast was boosted because of larger estimates for Russia, China and Argentina that more than offset declines for India, Ukraine and Brazil.

The world is expected to produce 781.98 million mt of wheat in 2023/24, which is down by 1.45 million mt from 783.43 million mt projected in the October Wasde.

The global production decline is due to lower output in countries including India, Argentina, Kazakhstan, the United Kingdom and Brazil, which is only partially offset by gains in Russia.

Indian farmers are expected to harvest 110.55 million mt of wheat in 2023/24, which is down by 2.95 million mt from the 113.45 million mt projected in last month’s Wasde.

“The decrease for production in India is based on revised government estimates,” the report said.

Argentina’s 2023/24 wheat crop is projected to total 15 million mt, which is down from the 16.5 million mt expected in the October report.

The decline in the Argentine production forecast came because October rains were too late to help the crop in Cordoba and Santa Fe provinces, the USDA said.

Russian producers are projected to reap 90 million mt in 2023/24, which is up by 5 million mt from the October estimate.