Wasde: US wheat output, stocks seen higher, global stocks slightly lower

12 Oct 2023 | Mark Shenk

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) boosted its 2023/24 US production, ending stocks and domestic consumption estimates while slightly trimming global output and supply projections.

Ending stocks of the 2023/24 crop year are expected to total 670 million bushels (18.23 million mt) in the October update to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde), which is 55 million bu higher than projected a month ago.

The ending stocks estimate for 2023/24 is slightly higher than the 660 million bu (17.96 million mt) projected by analysts surveyed by Agricensus before the release of the report.

US wheat output is expected to total 1.812 billion bushels (49.3 million mt) in 2023/24, which is up 78 million bushels from last month’s estimate and 9.8% higher than 1.65 billion bu projected for 2022/23.  

Domestic consumption is projected at 1.159 billion bu (31.5 million mt), up 30 million bu from the September estimate and higher than the 2022/23 forecast of 1.131 billion bu.

The 2023/24 export estimate was unchanged from last month at 700 million bu (19.1 million mt).

"The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year," the report said.

US Wheat Classes

HRW (hard red winter) wheat production is projected to total 601 million bushels (16.4 million mt) in 2023/24, up from 585 million bushels projected in September.

Hard red spring (HRS) output is projected to reach 468 million bu (12.7 million mt), much higher than last month's estimate of 413 million bu.

The USDA pegged soft red winter (SRW) production at 449 million bu (12.2 million mt), up from 440 million bu a month ago.

White wheat production is expected to total 235 million bu (6.4 million mt), which is down from 239 million mt in last month's Wasde.

Durum output is forecast to come in at 59 million bu (1.61 million mt), up from 57 million mt last month.

Global Outlook

Global ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 258.13 million mt, down from 258.61 million mt projected last month.

The world is expected to produce 783.34 million mt of wheat in 2023/24, which is down 4 million mt from 787.34 million mt in the September report.  

The global production decline is due to lower output in Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ethiopia, which is only partially offset by higher US production.

The Australian production estimate was trimmed by 1.5 million mt to 24.5 million mt because of lingering dry conditions over most of the growing areas.

"Ethiopia is also lowered 2.0 million tons to 5.5 million on reduced harvested area, dry conditions in August and September, and less input use," according to the report.

Kazakhstan's output was reduced by 2 million mt to 13 million mt because of "suboptimal growing conditions," according to the USDA.