Wasde: USDA cuts Argentina's soybean output to 27mmt, below projections

11 Apr 2023 | Marcela Caetano

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s April update to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) cut Argentina’s soybean output by 2 million mt from the previous estimate to 27 million mt, landing well below market expectations.

In the report, released on Tuesday, Argentina's production was cut from the previous 33 million mt, while an Agricensus pre-release poll showed participants expected it to be cut to 29 million mt.

The country is facing a hash drought and is set to harvest its smallest bean crop in 23 years.

Soybean CBOT futures slightly declined after the release, with the May contract down 6 c/bu a few minutes after.

Argentina’s domestic crush projection also declined to 32 million mt from the previous 35.2 million mt forecasts.

The country’s export estimates remained unchanged at 3.4 million mt, while imports are now projected at 8.3 million mt, from last month’s 7.2 million mt.

Argentina's ending stocks are now seen at 18.1 million mt from the previous 19.8 million mt projection.

The country's domestic demand dropped to 37.7 million mt from the prior month's report 49.95 million mt outlook. 

Confirming market estimates, the USDA increased Brazil’s soybean output by 1 million mt to 154 million mt.

The US agency also increased global ending stocks projection to 100.2 million mt from the previous 100 million mt forecast, while the average market estimate was a 1 million mt decline to 99 million mt.

Global soybean output dropped from March’s 375.15 million mt to 369.64 million mt, a 5.5 million mt decrease on the month, as lower crops for Argentina and Uruguay were only partly offset by higher production for Brazil.

Global beginning stocks slightly increased from 99 million mt in the previous report to 99.7 million mt, while the global soybean crush declined to 515.2 million mt from the previous 320 million mt projection on reduced supplies and the slow pace for Argentina, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt.

Crush for Argentina was pegged at 32 million mt, down 3.3 million mt from the previous report.

Brazil, on the other hand, is projected to be 53.2 million mt, up from the previous 52.7 million mt projection.

The USDA also slightly decreased global soybean exports to 168 million mt from the previous 168.4 million mt estimates.

Global domestic use declined to 365.8 million mt from the previous 371.1 million mt, while global soybean imports declined to 164.7 million mt from the prior report’s 165.3 million mt.

US soybean data was broadly unchanged from the previous report, holding 2022/23 ending stocks at 210 million bushels (5.7 million mt), above market expectations.

On average, an Agricensus poll showed participants expected US soybean ending stocks at 202 million bushels (5.4 million mt).

US production figures remained unchanged at 116.3 million, while exports were unchanged at 58.8 million mt.