Wasde preview: US soybean stocks expected to be cut again

Market participants expect the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will reveal another round of cuts in its US soybean production and ending stock figures when it updates its August supply and demand estimates later this week, an Agricensus poll of traders and analysts has showed.

The USDA will release its influential World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report on Friday 11 and poll participants believe it will show a decrease in the supply side of the US’s soybean balance sheet both on ending stocks and production.

On average, the poll expects the US 2023/24 soybean ending stocks at 266 million bushels (bu), below the 300 million reported at July’s Wasde.

Poll participants look for maintenance on the acreage compared to the last report but for a decrease in yields to 51.3 bushels per acre (bpa) from the 52 bpa in July’s report and, consequentially, lower production to 4.24 billion bu from the 4.3 billion bu in the same comparative.

That was supported by the persistent dry weather over the main US production areas, 51% of which is experiencing drought according to the last available US Drought Monitor report.

In other regions, the pool expects Brazilian and Argentine soybean production to remain unchanged at 163 million mt and 48 million mt respectively, on the 2023/24 crop.

However, when it comes to the 2022/23 crop, analysts and traders expect the Argentine crop to be reduced by 1 million mt, to 24 million mt in USDA’s August Wasde.

Finally, world ending stocks are expected to be decreased by 2 million mt, to 119 million mt, on the 2024/23 crop and by 1 million mt, to 102 million mt, regarding the 2022/23 crop.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its August 2023 Wasde report at 1200 Eastern Time on Friday, August 11.