Wasde preview: Weather boosts US wheat new crop stocks, global stocks cut

Agricensus' monthly survey of analysts ahead of the USDA's upcoming August Wasde update has revealed that participants estimate steady ending stock figures for across the old wheat crop, while projecting a higher carry over for the US' new crop and a nudge lower globally.

For new crop 2022/23 ending stocks, analysts are looking for an increase versus last month’s figures with an on average increase of 10 million bushels (272,153 mt), taking the US stocks to 649 million bu (17.6 million mt).

Globally, on average, analysts polled are projecting stocks to continue to decrease by 100,000 mt to 267 million mt.

Despite harsh weather conditions across the US, analysts continue to look for an increase in production, with 1.79 billion bu (48.74 million mt) projected in the 2022/23 marketing year for all wheat classes, a 10 million bushel increase from last month's report.

On average, increases are estimated for hard red spring and hard red winter, while white wheat is projected to see a decline in production.

Durum and soft red winter wheat production are projected steady at 77 million bushels (2.09 million mt) and 376 million bushels (10.23 million mt), respectively.

In the latest USDA crop report in the week ending August 7, winter wheat harvest was reported at 86% complete, up from 82% last week but was behind the 94% reached during the same week in 2021 and the 5-year average of 91%.

Meanwhile, the spring wheat crop harvest was reported at 9% complete, down from 35% a year earlier and from the 5-year average of 19%.

Black Sea

At 81.5 million mt, the USDA’s outlook for Russian wheat production continues to lag behind local analysts’ estimates, with some calling for as much as 90 million mt in the upcoming season.

Official government data put the production gathered to date at 55.8 million mt earlier in the week, with under 50% of the total area harvested – but questions remain over the likely yield and quality as rain continued to slow farmers’ work.

The harvest is also running well behind schedule on the back of the weather, but nevertheless the USDA may look at pushing the production figure higher in light of the anecdotal evidence as the deterioration in US-Russian relations is likely to complicate the work of the USDA’s Moscow attaché.

Exports were left unchanged at 40 million mt in the July update, and could hold unchanged again this month, even if production is pushed higher, as quality issues and lingering sanctions potentially cap any commensurate pick up in exports.

For Ukraine, even the restoration of some exports from the three main ports – as negotiated with Russia, Turkey and the UN – are unlikely to bring much prospect for an increase in exports as much of the export slate appears to be dominated by corn.

The USDA will release its August 2022 Wasde report at 1200 Eastern Time on August 12.