Wasde: US wheat ending stocks revised higher, global stocks lower

8 Mar 2024 | Mark Shenk

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its 2023/24 US ending stocks estimates for wheat and left the country’s output estimate unchanged, while global ending stocks projections were trimmed slightly as the production outlook increased.

Ending stocks for the 2023/24 crop year were expected to total 673 million bushels (18.32 million mt) in the March update to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde), which is 15 million bu higher than projected a month ago.

The ending stocks estimate for 2023/24 is higher than the 660 million bu (17.96 million mt) projected by analysts surveyed by Agricensus before the release of the report.

Ending stocks of hard red winter (HRW) are expected to total 282 million bu (7.67 million mt), which is up 3 million bushels from the February report, hard red spring ending stocks were unchanged at 177 million mt (4.82 million mt) and soft red winter supplies are forecast to end the 2023/24 crop year at 119 million (3.24 million mt), up 8 million bu from a month ago.

White wheat stocks are expected to end 2023/24 at 74 million bu (2.01 million mt), unchanged from the February Wasde and durum ending stocks are projected to be 21 million bu (571,500 mt), up 4 million bu from February.

US wheat output is expected to total 1.812 billion bushels (49.3 million mt) in 2023/24, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate and 9.8% higher than 1.65 billion bu projected for 2022/23.  

The 2023/24 export estimate was trimmed by 15 million bu to 710 million bu (19.32 million mt).

Domestic consumption is projected at 1.144 billion bu (31.13 million mt), unchanged from the February estimate and higher than the 2022/23 forecast of 1.118 billion bu.

Global Outlook

Global ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 258.83 million mt, down 610,000 mt from 259.44 million mt projected last month.

Analysts surveyed before the report expected that the USDA would project 2023/24 global ending stocks of 260 million mt. 

The world is expected to produce 786.7 million mt of wheat in 2023/24, which is up 960,000 mt from 785.74 million mt in the February report.  

The global production increase is due to higher output in Australia, Russia and Argentina, which is expected to offset a decline in the European Union production estimate.

The USDA boosted Australia’s 2023/24 production estimate by 500,000 mt from the February Wasde to 26 million mt.

Russian output is projected to total 91.5 million mt during the current crop year, which is 500,000 mt higher than forecast in February.

Argentina’s crop is projected to total 15.9 million mt, which is up 400,000 mt from the 15.5 million mt expected in the last report.

EU farmers are expected to reap 133.65 million mt, down from 134 projected in the February Wasde.

Global exports are expected to total 212.1 million mt, up 1.4 million mt from the February forecast, with big gains in the Ukrainian and Australian estimates.

Ukraine is expected to export 16 million mt of wheat in 2023/24, up 1 million from last month’s estimate, while the Australian forecast was boosted by 500,000 mt to 290 million mt.